Bleacher Report's Expert Week 11 NFL Picks

Like some NFL teams and fantasy football managers, our Bleacher Report betting crew is pushing for a midseason run to finish the year on a high note, and they're off to a good start.

Over the last two weeks, they're 16-6 on their consensus picks. The experts scorched the Week 10 slate with a 75 percent win rate.

Still, B/R's experts, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton, along with editors Wes O'Donnell, Ian Hanford and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting Strategy know they have more work to do to stay on their A-game.

Our experts also know it's about pacing themselves rather than getting greedy. They hit on five underdogs last week, but the panel isn't as bullish on underdogs this week.

Before you dive into our Week 11 picks against the spread, take a look at our leaderboard. Last week's records are in parentheses.

ATS Standings

1. O'Donnell: 87-61-4 (8-6)

2. Hanford: 80-68-4 (8-6)

T-3. Knox: 79-69-4 (8-6)

T-3. Sobleski: 79-69-4 (12-2)

5. Gagnon 75-73-4 (9-5)

T-6. Davenport: 74-74-4 (11-3)

T-6. Michelino: 74-74-4 (8-6)

8. Moton: 73-75-4 (6-8)

Consensus picks: 67-56-2 (9-3)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 13, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by TeamRankings.

DraftKings Line: Philadelphia -3.5

The NFL kicks off Week 11 with a high-stakes matchup between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. The two teams will battle for first place in the NFC East.

After a surprisingly impressive start to the season, which included a few blowout victories, the Commanders have lost a bit of steam coming into this matchup. In Week 8, they needed a Hail Mary pass to beat the Chicago Bears 18-15. The New York Giants then almost covered a 3.5-point spread in a 27-22 loss to Washington.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have won five consecutive games, beating three of their last four opponents by 20-plus points.

Most of our experts backed Philadelphia, but Michelino pumped the brakes on the surging Eagles in favor of the Commanders.

"The Eagles will host the Commanders on TNF as 3.5-point favorites in a star-studded battle that has game-of-the-year potential. Both teams are led by quarterbacks having impressive seasons, with Hurts leading all QBs in rushing touchdowns and Jayden Daniels running away with Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

"The biggest question yet to be fully answered…are these Commanders the real deal? Also, this division rivalry has been one-sided in recent years.

"The Eagles, who look like legit total contenders, are winners of five straight after a rocky start and rank second in total defense. While Washington's defense is much improved, it's a tall order facing this set of skill weapons both through the air and on the ground.

"The X-factor for me is the explosiveness of Daniels, who showed impressive poise and patience playing a tough Steelers defensive front last week. I believe Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury will game-plan a more aggressive attack to keep pace. In key division matchups like this, my lean is always taking the points, and I see no reason to stray here.

"The Commanders will likely lose in this spot, but I don't see it by more than a field goal."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Commanders

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Eagles

Michelino: Commanders

Moton: Eagles

O'Donnell: Eagles

Sobleski: Eagles

ATS Consensus: Eagles -3.5

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 21

DK Line: Minnesota -6

Through the first month of the season, the Minnesota Vikings offense steamrolled through opponents before wideout Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson were fully healthy. Oddly, the offense hasn't looked as explosive with a full deck of pass-catchers, and Sam Darnold has reverted to a turnover machine.

Over the last three weeks, Darnold has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions. On the other hand, Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis had his first turnover-free game last week after returning from an extended absence due to a shoulder injury.

Moton isn't buying that Levis has turned a corner in his development, though.

"Levis is coming off his best game of the season, but bettors shouldn't get their hopes up about his improvement. He still took seven sacks. The Titans will now face the blitz-happy Vikings, which means Levis must make quick shrewd decisions from the pocket. Based on his number of turnover-worthy plays this year, don't expect another efficient performance from him.

"Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will make life in the pocket tough for Levis, and the Titans will remember why they must take a quarterback early in the 2025 draft. Levis throws multiple interceptions, and the Vikings offense gets its swagger back after settling for four field goals last week."

Predictions

Davenport: Vikings

Gagnon: Vikings

Hanford: Vikings

Knox: Vikings

Michelino: Titans

Moton: Vikings

O'Donnell: Vikings

Sobleski: Titans

ATS Consensus: Vikings -6

Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Titans 16

DK Line: Green Bay -6

Following a loss to the Detroit Lions, the Green Bay Packers had a much-needed Week 10 bye. Quarterback Jordan Love had time to nurse a groin injury that limited him at practice two weeks ago.

While the Packers had time to regroup and recover, the Chicago Bears made changes. On Tuesday, they fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and assigned play-calling duties to passing game coordinator Thomas Brown.

Last year, Brown called plays for the Carolina Panthers after they fired Frank Reich late in November. On Brown's watch, the Panthers scored fewer than 10 points in four out of six contests and were shut out twice.

Like last year, Brown will work with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, but this Bears team has far more playmakers than last year's Panthers offense. However, Gagnon doesn't see a better result for Thomas and the Bears.

"The Packers really need this coming off a loss to Detroit, and they should be extra rested and prepared following the bye," Gagnon noted. "Meanwhile, the Bears are in disarray following Waldron's sudden dismissal. They've been outscored 48-12 in back-to-back losses and haven't won a game in a month. This could be a blowout."

Predictions

Davenport: Bears

Gagnon: Packers

Hanford: Bears

Knox: Packers

Michelino: Packers

Moton: Packers

O'Donnell: Packers

Sobleski: Packers

ATS Consensus: Packers -6

Score Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 13

DK Line: Baltimore -3

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will battle for first place in the AFC North. While these teams often pound each other in physical matchups, this game could feature several successful aerial attacks as well, so take the over on total points.

The Ravens have the NFL's worst pass defense, as they're giving up more yards and touchdowns than any team. The Steeler are 19th in total passing yards allowed, and they'll be without starting edge-rusher Alex Highsmith (ankle).

When our experts broke down the spread, they immediately saw a push with this line because these teams are evenly matched and know each other well. Hanford thinks the Ravens win the game by the slightest of margins, which would still leave room for the Steelers to cover.

"Right out of the gate, I'll say that I fully expect this game to end in a push and the Ravens to win by a field goal. The Steelers have owned Baltimore lately, winning seven of their last eight meetings and forcing Lamar Jackson into seven interceptions in their last six matchups. But this Ravens' offense is different this year with Derrick Henry in the mix and Jackson playing the best football of his career.

"Pittsburgh is improved defensively from the last time these two met, and the Russell Wilson-led Steelers offense is probably the best Mike Tomlin has had in the last five years. But this game comes down to Henry. The Steelers have allowed more than 100 rushing yards in their two losses this season and will face a tall task stopping the NFL's leading rusher in this one.

"I expect a typical, tight AFC North rivalry battle with Baltimore eking out a win on the road."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Ravens

Hanford: Steelers

Knox: Steelers

Michelino: Steelers

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Steelers

ATS Consensus: Steelers +3

Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Ravens 26

DK Line: Detroit -13

The Detroit Lions overcame their worst outing of the season in an enthralling 26-23 comeback win over the Houston Texans last Sunday night. Jared Goff threw five interceptions and completed only 50 percent of his passes, but he did enough in the fourth quarter to put Detroit in position to win by a field goal.

Goff isn't likely to have back-to-back stinkers, especially with this one at home. Our crew isn't worried about lingering effects from last week's game against a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that will start backup quarterback Mac Jones in place of an injured Trevor Lawrence (shoulder).

As Davenport recalled, the Lions have throttled a few teams this year, and he thinks they will do it again.

"Yes, some of the shine came off Goff last week with the five interceptions," Davenport said. "And yes, the Lions have covered a spread this big only twice this year. When the number is this big, the back door is always a worry.

"But those two covers came in demolitions of the Cowboys and Titans by a combined score of 99-23. The Jaguars will start Mac 'Wishes He Was Tom' Jones at quarterback, head coach Doug Pederson is already sending out resumes, and the Jaguars are dead last in the league in total defense.

"Lions send a message against the NFL's worst team. The spread isn't nearly large enough."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Lions

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Lions

Michelino: Lions

Moton: Lions

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Lions

ATS Consensus: Lions -13

Score Prediction: Lions 34, Jaguars 14

DK Line: Los Angeles -4.5

On a short week, the Los Angeles Rams will try to shake off the stench of a putrid Monday night performance at home. They turned the ball over twice and settled for five field goals.

The Rams have a middling 4-5 record, and they're 3-6 ATS. They don't profile as a team that should be favored on the road going east by more than a field goal.

Still, Davenport made a case for Los Angeles and against the New England Patriots, who lack offensive firepower.

"This game is icky—it's one of those contests where the argument made for both sides makes you feel like that eighth White Castle burger was about three too many. The Rams couldn't score a touchdown at home last week against a two-win Dolphins team, while the Patriots were getting Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron fired.

"Wait. I'm making the wrong argument. The Rams are going to win. They're just a better team with better players, a better coach and a better quarterback. Drake Maye has shown legit talent, but he has no weapons around him.

"The Rams need to win this game to stay relevant in the NFC West, and their veteran core will get it done. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams will power L.A. to a double-digit victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Rams

Gagnon: Patriots

Hanford: Rams

Knox: Rams

Michelino: Patriots

Moton: Rams

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Rams -4.5

Score Prediction: Rams 26, Patriots 20

DK Line: New York -4

After an inspiring Week 9 win over the Houston Texans, the New York Jets went flat on a West Coast trip to Arizona, losing 31-6.

Based on their roster on paper, the Jets should be a playoff contender. But they lack direction on offense after interim play-caller Todd Downing took over for Nathaniel Hackett.

Gang Green has also significantly regressed on defense after firing head coach Robert Saleh and promoted defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to interim head coach.

With all of that said, the Indianapolis Colts haven't played any better than the Jets in recent weeks. They've loss three consecutive contests, the last two with Joe Flacco under center. On Wednesday, Indianapolis announced that quarterback Anthony Richardson will reclaim the starting job.

One of these teams will break out of their funk. Sobleski picked the Jets.

"The Colts' switch to Flacco under center proved to be an unmitigated disaster. Even with Richardson returning to the lineup, it's still difficult to envision Indianapolis' offense getting off the ground, especially against the league's second-best pass defense.

"The Jets are soft against the run, which puts Richardson's legs and Jonathan Taylor in play for the Colts to grind out this game and potentially keep it closer than expected. Aaron Rogers and Co. have struggled on the ground as well.

"The difference is that the Colts field the league's fourth-worst defense in total yards. Rodgers has seen Gus Bradley's scheme so many times that he could probably pick it apart in his sleep.

"This matchup likely won't be pretty, but the Jets hold a slight advantage."

Predictions

Davenport: Jets

Gagnon: Colts

Hanford: Jets

Knox: Jets

Michelino: Colts

Moton: Colts

O'Donnell: Jets

Sobleski: Jets

ATS Consensus: Jets -4

Score Prediction: Jets 23, Colts 17

DK Line: New Orleans -1

As many of our panelists expected, the New Orleans Saints looked re-energized under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. In Week 10, they led the Atlanta Falcons from start to finish and pulled off the 20-17 upset.

Can the Saints keep that same energy while they host the Cleveland Browns? Browns quarterback Jameis Winston played for the Saints between 2020 and 2023, so this game may mean more to him when he returns to New Orleans.

Putting the Winston storyline aside, Sobleski likes Nick Chubb to run through the Saints' subpar run defense.

"Three factors play into picking the slight dog for this matchup," Sobleski said. "First, the Browns remain one of the league's best at locking down receivers in man coverage. As long as the unit cleaned up the few mental mistakes it made against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Saints don't have the wide receivers to threaten Cleveland.

"Second, Chubb needs to be a focal point in this contest. He will be in his fourth game since returning from last year's knee injury. He should be rounding into shape against the Saints' bottom-six run defense.

"Finally, the Browns are coming off their bye. Cleveland is 3-1 in games after the bye during Kevin Stefanski's tenure as head coach."

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Gagnon: Browns

Hanford: Browns

Knox: Browns

Michelino: Saints

Moton: Browns

O'Donnell: Saints

Sobleski: Browns

ATS Consensus: Browns +1

Score Prediction: Browns 24, Saints 21

DK Line: Miami -7

The Miami Dolphins kept their slim hopes of making a run at a playoff spot alive with a win over the Los Angeles Rams last Monday. This week, they will face the Las Vegas Raiders, who are trying to patch up their offense.

Two weeks ago, the Raiders fired multiple offensive coaches. Perhaps head coach Antonio Pierce is trying to replicate the team's turnaround from last season with a different cast.

Moton threw cold water on the idea that the Raiders can find their offensive groove amid all of the changes and inactivity during their bye week.

"The Dolphins will host the Raiders on a short week after beating the Rams last Monday. The Silver and Black had a bye week to study their opponent. That should give them the edge in preparation for this matchup, but that isn't the case because of the changes they went through during their bye week.

"The Raiders fired their offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy), quarterbacks coach (Rich Scangarello) and offensive line coach (James Cregg) right after losing 41-24 to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9. Pierce told reporters that the team 'likely won't practice at all' during the bye week because of injuries.

"So, the Raiders will travel east after making significant offensive changes and will have a short time to pick up a new system. The Raiders could get off to a slow start, allowing the Dolphins to build an early lead and wear down their 22nd-ranked run defense with De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright.

"Dolphins win by nine for their first set of back-to-back wins this season."

Predictions

Davenport: Raiders

Gagnon: Raiders

Hanford: Dolphins

Knox: Dolphins

Michelino: Raiders

Moton: Dolphins

O'Donnell: Dolphins

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Dolphins -7

Score Prediction: Dolphins 26, Raiders 17

DK Line: San Francisco -6.5

The Seattle Seahawks made a roster move on Monday that didn't impact the spread, though it's worth mentioning as head coach Mike Macdonald tinkers with his defense. They released linebacker Tyrel Dodson, who started in all nine games this season.

The Seahawks traded for linebacker Ernest Jones IV in October. Going forward, Jones and rookie fourth-rounder Tyrice Knight will likely man the starting linebacker positions.

That's a bold move in the week leading up to a matchup with the San Francisco 49ers' seventh-ranked scoring offense.

The Seahawks may have to work through some hiccups at linebacker, but they could get star wide receiver DK Metcalf back from an MCL sprain, which may help them match scoring drives with San Francisco if necessary.

O'Donnell has never believed in Geno Smith's transformation into a starting-caliber quarterback in Seattle. He took a peek at the head-to-head record between these NFC West foes and confidently picked the 49ers to cover by more than a touchdown.

"Let's keep things really simple here. Smith took over as the Seahawks' starter in the 2022 season. The 49ers have won six straight against Seattle, dating back to the 2022 season. Their average margin of victory during that span is 14.6 points, with the narrowest victory being eight points.

"Seattle is flailing, losing five of its last six games by an average of 12 points. San Francisco has everything to play for, as it currently sits on the outside looking in on the NFC playoff picture. Don't overthink this."

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Gagnon: 49ers

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Michelino: Seahawks

Moton: Seahawks

O'Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: 49ers

ATS Consensus: 49ers -6.5

Score Prediction: 49ers 31, Seahawks 21

DK Line: Denver -2.5

The Denver Broncos came within fingertips of beating the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal blocked a potential game-winning field goal.

At times, teams struggle to move on from a deflating loss. As a veteran Super Bowl-winning head coach, Sean Payton has to uplift his team's spirit or the Broncos' season could unravel in the coming weeks.

On a brighter note for Denver, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has shown progress and has clicked with wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Since Week 8, Sutton has caught 21 passes for 292 yards and a touchdown.

Nix and Sutton may need to connect on scoring drives to keep pace with the Atlanta Falcons, who rank fifth in total yards. Nonetheless, the Broncos are 7-3 ATS, and Knox likes the way they match up against the Falcons.

"How do the Broncos possibly move past a last-second loss to the rival Chiefs?" Knox asked. "I think they do it by physically dominating the visiting Falcons.

"With Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts leading the offense, Atlanta definitely has more star power. I don't think the Falcons are well-equipped for the ugly grind-out-game that lies ahead.

"I expect Cousins to face a lot of pressure in this game and to handle it more poorly than Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes did over the last two weeks. And while the Broncos offense has had its issues, I expect Atlanta's inconsistent defense and non-existent pass rush to make life relatively easy for Nix.

"The 2024 Sean Payton revenge tour has seen the Broncos beat three other NFC South teams handily. I think Denver makes it a clean sweep with a win over the Falcons."

Predictions

Davenport: Broncos

Gagnon: Broncos

Hanford: Broncos

Knox: Broncos

Michelino: Falcons

Moton: Falcons

O'Donnell: Falcons

Sobleski: Falcons

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Falcons 20

DK Line: Buffalo -2.5

In recent years, the Buffalo Bills have had the Kansas City Chiefs' number during the regular season. Yet they have fallen to the reigning champions in three playoff matchups that featured Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

The Bills face more adversity leading into this chapter of the AFC rivalry because of their injuries. Head coach Sean McDermott has already ruled out wideout Keon Coleman (wrist) for this game. Amari Cooper missed last week's game because of a wrist injury. Tight end Dalton Kincaid suffered a knee injury last week and seems questionable for Sunday.

The Chiefs also have critical injuries. Wideouts Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown are on injured reserve. However, the team designated running back Isiah Pacheco (leg) to return from injured reserve on Tuesday.

Though both teams will be without key offensive playmakers, this should be a tight battle like the previous meetings.

O'Donnell went anti-trend and went against all of the signs that favor Kansas City in this matchup. He couldn't jump off the Bills bandwagon, but he made a case for anyone who likes the Chiefs in this spot.

"Josh Allen has gotten the best of Patrick Mahomes in the regular season. In fact, the last three meetings, the Bills have won by three points or more. But when the Chiefs are getting points—and this has only happened 17 times since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018—K.C. is 12-5 against the spread. You should take the points.

"It gets better. Eleven of the games were on the road, and Mahomes and Andy Reid are 10-0-1 in those 11 games. Simple math: Mahomes is getting points; you should take the points.

"The Bills are a lackluster 2-2 this season as home favorites. Take the points.

"These undefeated Chiefs have been anything but dominant, yet they are undefeated. Take the damn points. I can't (Jason Segel Dracula's Lament voice)—but you should."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Michelino: Bills

Moton: Chiefs

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Bills -2.5

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 21

DK Line: Los Angeles -1

The Los Angeles Chargers are a 6-3 team without a quality win against an opponent with a winning record, which has led to questions about how they match up with playoff-caliber clubs.

Even if the Chargers win this contest, skeptics will point to the Cincinnati Bengals' sub-.500 record. Yet oddsmakers are telling you these teams are in the same weight class.

Furthermore, the Bengals are fighting to stay in the playoff mix, and they may get wideout Tee Higgins (quad) back on the field.

Apparently, our experts aren't buying the Chargers as an AFC powerhouse. Except for Davenport, they all sided with Cincinnati. Knox thinks a desperate Bengals team improves its ghastly record in one-score games.

"Almost everything points to the Chargers winning this pivotal AFC showdown. Los Angeles has an elite defense and is finally starting to find a rhythm offensively. While L.A. doesn't enjoy a great home-field advantage, the Bengals still face a long road trip after an emotional loss to the rival Ravens.

"Cincinnati's defense still isn't good, and the Bengals are just 1-5 in one-score games this season—and I do anticipate a close, low-scoring game here. However, the 4-6 Bengals are desperate, and desperate teams are dangerous. I just think Cincinnati finds a way to keep its wild-card hopes alive with a win on Sunday night."

Predictions

Davenport: Chargers

Gagnon: Bengals

Hanford: Bengals

Knox: Bengals

Michelino: Bengals

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Bengals

Sobleski: Bengals

ATS Consensus: Bengals +1

Score Prediction: Bengals 28, Chargers 23

DK Line: Houston -7

Last week, the Houston Texans couldn't beat the Detroit Lions despite forcing five interceptions. They may be asking themselves what more they could have done to win a game that they controlled for most of three quarters.

Well, the Texans must score in the second half. In four consecutive outings, they have gone scoreless in the third and fourth quarters.

If star wideout Nico Collins (hamstring) suits up, he would certainly help Houston in that regard. At the end of last week, the team designated him for return from injured reserve.

Hanford suspects that Collins and 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. have a good chance to suit up Monday night to give the Texans a much-needed boost in a blowout victory over the Dallas Cowboys.

"The Texans don't inspire a ton of confidence after failing to win a game where Jared Goff threw five interceptions on Sunday night, but the Cowboys inspire even less. It sounds like Dallas is going to throw Cooper Rush back out there against a Houston defense that just picked off five passes against a functional offense. It's hard to imagine what the Texans defense will do to Dallas in that case.

"C.J. Stroud is likely to get his favorite target in Collins back. Anderson could give Houston's defense a boost if he's able to give it a go as well. The Texans have run hot and cold and have their own share of issues on offense, but the Cowboys are teetering on the brink of a team that looks like it's just waiting for next season."

Predictions

Davenport: Texans

Gagnon: Cowboys

Hanford: Texans

Knox: Texans

Michelino: Texans

Moton: Texans

O'Donnell: Texans

Sobleski: Texans

ATS Consensus: Texans -7

Score Prediction: Texans 30, Cowboys 14

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